Outlier Weekly — Forward-Track

This sheet logs the calls from the first system: Issue 1 and Issue 2. Each row has the entry price, the sized fraction, the resolution date, and the outcome. Later letters are not rows here.

Rules of this sheet:

• No retroactive edits. If a call resolves wrong, it stays on the sheet.
• SKIPs are first-class entries. The methodology refuses to trade when market and model converge inside the noise floor, and those refusals are logged the same as positions taken.
• Each row links back to the issue that produced the call, so any reader can audit the math from inputs to weighted output.
• Resolution rows are appended as outcomes settle; the post-mortem appears in whichever issue ships within 72 hours of resolution.

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Forward-track ledger

Issue	Ship date	Market	Outcome window	Direction	Entry (YES¢)	Sized fraction	Resolution date	Status	Resolution	Issue link
1	2026-05-14	Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by [date]?	June 30, 2026	SKIP	32¢ (draft) → 27¢ (publish-day lock)	0% of bankroll	2026-06-30	OPEN	pending	Issue 1
2	2026-05-26	Iran closes its airspace by June 30, 2026?	June 30, 2026	SKIP	27¢ (evening draft) → 29.7¢ (publish-day lock)	0% of bankroll	2026-06-30	OPEN	pending	Issue 2

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Issue 1 — call detail

Market: Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30, 2026? Direction: SKIP — model–market convergence inside the noise floor.

Model output (draft, p_market = 32¢):

• Poisson edge: −4.2¢ → BUY_NO at the candidate level
• Shannon / KL divergence: 0.006 bits → SKIP (below the 0.01-bit floor)
• Taleb tail-bucket multiplier: 1.5x
• Weighted synthesis: 0.81% NO

Model output (publish-day, p_market = 27¢):

• Poisson edge: +0.8¢ → near-zero edge
• Shannon / KL divergence: <0.01 bits → SKIP
• Taleb tail-bucket multiplier: 1.5x
• Weighted synthesis: ≈ 0% (effective SKIP)

Why the change between draft and publish: the market moved 5pp between the analytical work and the publish-day lock, into the immediate neighborhood of the Poisson fair value. The directional signal that read BUY_NO at 32¢ flattens to a near-zero edge at 27¢. Under the synthesis’s skip-discipline rules, this collapses the weighted output to an effective non-position. The methodology refuses the trade when market and model converge inside the noise floor — Issue 1’s forward-track row is the first published instance of that refusal.

Resolution oracle: Polymarket UMA / public announcement of qualifying agreement, evaluated against the market’s rules text as of 2026-05-14.

Re-watch trigger: If the June-30 price moves outside a 22–32¢ band before resolution, the synthesis is re-run and any resulting call is logged in the next issue.

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Issue 2 — call detail

Market: Iran closes its airspace by June 30, 2026? (June 30 leg)
Direction: SKIP — Poisson fair value ≈ market price; KL in noise floor; synthesis below actionable minimum.

Model output (evening draft, p_market = 27.25¢):

• Poisson edge (λ ≈ 0.065–0.07 / week, 5 weeks): +2–3¢ → marginal BUY_YES at candidate level
• Shannon / KL divergence (p_mine = 38%): ≈ 0.016 bits → SKIP
• Taleb tail-bucket multiplier: 1.5×
• Weighted synthesis: ≈ 0.6–1.1% YES (below 0.5% actionable floor → treated as SKIP)

Model output (publish-day lock, p_market = 29.7¢):

• Poisson edge (λ ≈ 0.065–0.07 / week): ≈ 0¢ → SKIP (inside 1¢ noise band)
• Shannon / KL divergence (p_mine = 38%): ≈ 0.023 bits → SKIP
• Taleb tail-bucket multiplier: 1.5×
• Weighted synthesis: ≈ 0.16% YES → 0% logged (effective SKIP)

Why the change between draft and publish: YES repriced +2.4pp overnight (27¢ → 30¢), collapsing Poisson edge into the noise band. Issue 2 applies the tighter ≥3pp re-run rule before every publish lock (Issue 1 documented a 5pp move; Issue 2 standardizes 3pp).

Category note: Issue 2 is a geopolitical tail binary (airspace closure), deliberately different from Issue 1’s regulatory binary — methodology breadth, same skip discipline.

Resolution oracle: Polymarket rules text — major closure of Iranian airspace (not weather-only), evaluated as of 2026-05-26.

Re-watch trigger: If YES moves outside a 24–34¢ band before resolution, re-run and log any new call in the next issue.

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Ledger schema (for forward-readers)

Future entries will follow this column ordering. Definitions:

• Issue — newsletter issue number (1, 2, 3, …)
• Ship date — date the issue published (ISO YYYY-MM-DD)
• Market — short title of the underlying Polymarket / Kalshi market
• Outcome window — the specific outcome / resolution date addressed by the call
• Direction — BUY_YES, BUY_NO, or SKIP. SKIPs include the reason (e.g., “noise-floor convergence”, “Shannon-collapse without news”, “liquidity-failure”)
• Entry (YES¢) — price at the moment of publication; for SKIPs, both draft and publish-day prices are shown
• Sized fraction — quarter-Kelly position size expressed as % of bankroll. SKIPs are 0%
• Resolution date — date the market is scheduled to resolve
• Status — OPEN until resolved; then WON, LOST, or SKIP-CORRECT / SKIP-WRONG
• Resolution — pending while OPEN; final outcome once resolved
• Issue link — link to the issue that produced the call

When SKIPs resolve, they are evaluated as either SKIP-CORRECT (the position the methodology would have taken would have lost, so the refusal was right) or SKIP-WRONG (the position would have won, so the refusal cost the portfolio). Track-record discipline is measured against both kinds of calls.

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Related

• Methodology — three formulas, one weighting
• Subscribe to Outlier Weekly
• Issue 1 — One Market, Three Formulas
• Issue 2 — Iran Airspace, Three Formulas, and Why I’m Not Sizing This